75 basis point hike in September is almost a done deal, Shah says
The stronger-than-expected July jobs report means that the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point at its next meeting, as opposed to the half-percentage-point hike markets expected, Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors, said.
“Today’s blow out number means that a 75bps hike in September is almost a done deal. Not only is the labor market undoubtedly still tight, but wage growth is uncomfortably strong,” Shah wrote in a Friday note. “The Fed has its work cut out for it to create sufficient slack that could ease price pressures.”
“All the jobs lost during the pandemic have now been regained. But while that is positive news, markets will take today’s number as a timely reminder that there is significantly more Fed hiking still to come,” she said. “Rates are going above 4% – today’s number should put to bed any doubters.”
Cramer on why stocks react negatively to jobs report
“This number is extraordinary. We’re a growth country. The rest of the world is not,” said Jim Cramer on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” after the strong report.
But Cramer cautioned about what it means for stock prices and explained why we are seeing the negative reaction in the futures.
“It means that obviously when they (the Fed) come back it stays hot they will do another three-quarters,” Cramer said. “That’s not what we thought. Remember we kind of bought this market on the idea that they are at 50 (basis points).”
After increasing rates by 0.75 percentage point for a second straight time last week, the central bank will next meet to decide on interest rates in September. Traders hoped they would slow the pace to a half point hike at that meeting. The S&P 500 is up 8% in the past one month through Thursday’s close.
Stock futures slump after better than expected jobs report
Stock futures fell Friday after the July jobs report came in much stronger than expected, showing more jobs added, a lower unemployment rate and higher wage growth than economists forecast.
Dow futures slipped 231 points, or 0.71%. Futures tied to the S&P 500 fell 1.08% and Nasdaq futures shed 1.33%.
July jobs report crushes expectations
The US economy added many more jobs than was expected last month. On Friday, the US government said 528,000 jobs were added in July, easily beating a Dow Jones estimate of 258,000.
To be sure, average hourly earnings were up 5.2% year over year — well above expectations. This could be seen by the market as a sign that inflationary pressures remain strong.
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Elon Musk thinks we’re past peak inflation
Elon Musk said that he thinks we are past peak inflation, and predicts a mild, 18-month recession ahead.
Musk’s comments came at the Tesla 2022 shareholder meeting, held Aug. 4.
“We do get a fair bit of insight into where prices of things are going over time because when you’re making millions of cars, you have to purchase commodities many months in advance of when they’re needed,” he said.
Amazon to acquire iRobot in $1.7 billion deal
Amazon will acquire iRobot for $61.00 per share, the consumer robot company announced on Friday. The all-cash transaction is valued at approximately $1.7 billion, including iRobot’s net debt.
Shares of iRobot were kept on the news. The sale price of $61 per share is a 22% premium to Thursday’s close of $49.99. Amazon’s stock was up about .2% in pre-market trading.
—By Michelle Fox
DoorDash surges after record orders
A delivery person for Doordash rides his bike in the rain during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, US, November 13, 2020.
Carlo Allegri | Reuters
Shares of DoorDash were up more than 10% in premarket trading Friday after the company reported quarterly results that beat expectations after market close Thursday. The food delivery service said orders grew 23% on the year last quarter, and revenue surged 30%.
The company does expect softer consumer spending in the second half of the year, it said.
Oil set for steep weekly loss
Oil prices were moderately lower during Friday morning trading on Wall Street and on track for steep weekly losses. Concerns about a slowdown in demand have sent prices tumbling in recent sessions.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the US oil benchmark, is down 10.5% for the week, while international benchmark Brent crude has shed 14.5%.
— Pippa Stevens
Bitcoin, Ether on track for worst week since July 1
Cryptocurrencies have slumped this week after a rough start to the month. Bitcoin and Ether are both down about 3% week to date and on pace to post their first negative week in five.
The performance would also be the worst weekly drop since July 1, when Bitcoin lost 8.71% and Ether shed 13%.
Warner Bros. plunges
Leslie Grace attends Warner Bros. Premiere of “The Suicide Squad” at The Landmark Westwood on August 02, 2021 in Los Angeles, California.
Axelle/bauer-griffin | Movie Magic | Getty Images
Stifel raises second-half S&P 500 target
Stifel’s Barry Bannister hiked his S&P 500 target for the second half to 4,400 from 4,200, noting he continues to prefer cyclical growth stocks in sectors such as software and media.
Here are two reasons Bannister gave for his target bump:
- The “S&P 500 sell-off in 1H22 is still being reversed.”
- “The S&P 500 also discounts negative y/y S&P 500 EPS in 2022, but we see 2022 EPS holding its own.”
Bannister’s new target implies 6% upside from Thursday’s close.
European stocks flat ahead of key US jobs report
European markets were flat on Friday morning as investors tracked corporate earnings and awaited the key US jobs report.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 was little changed in early trade. Cars gained 0.8% while insurance stocks fell 0.8%.
Earnings continue to drive individual share price movement in Europe. Allianz, Deutsche Post, the London Stock Exchange Group and WPP were among the companies reporting before the bell on Friday.
– Eliot Smith
Asia markets shake off fears over military tensions around Taiwan
Markets in Asia-Pacific rose on Friday as investors shook off fears over China’s military exercises near Taiwan, which follow US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the self-ruled island this week.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 0.74%. Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite gained 0.28% and the Shenzhen Component increased 0.64%.
The Taiex in Taiwan jumped more than 2%, with chipmaker TSMC rising 2.8%.
Lower headline jobs number doesn’t mean a weaker economy, investor says
If Friday’s jobs report shows the US economy added fewer workers in July than the previous month, it is not necessarily a sign of economic weakness, according to Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network.
“If we do see a reduction in hiring, even at the expected number, it looks much more likely to be due to a shortage of workers, rather than a sudden shock to labor demand,” McMillan said in a note. “With demand strong, what matters here is labor availability.”
— Yun Li
Some on Wall Street don’t think the comeback rally can sustain
The Fed’s commitment to bring down inflation as well as easing recession fears have sparked a relief rally in the market. The S&P 500 is now 14.2% above its 52-week intraday low of 3,636.87 from June 17. The benchmark index is also coming off its best month since November 2020, gaining more than 9% in July.
However, some on Wall Street are skeptical that the rally can sustain for much longer. Max Kettner, chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC Bank, said the comeback is “wishful thinking,” and he would need to see further repricing of rate hike expectations and another sharp drop in real yields to believe it.
Widely followed Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley also called this rally short-lived as corporate earnings are beginning to deteriorating.
Consumer discretionary leading the gains, energy biggest laggard this week so far
Six out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were in the green week to date, led by consumer discretionary, which has gained 2.9%.
The most negative sector this week has been energy, which has fallen more than 8% and is on track for its worst week since June 17. The decline in energy names came amid a drop in oil prices. WTI is down over 10% this week, on pace for its worst week since April.
— Yun Li